Yes. It's
actually happening. People in Britain are talking seriously about the
possibility of another referendum.
A
petition set up on Friday calling for another referendum on whether Britain
should stay in the European Union has already received more than 1.6 million signatures — a level that
means it must now be debated by British politicians. It was
apparently so popular that the British Parliament's website, where the petition
was hosted, briefly crashed.
The drive
for a new referendum is coming from those who had hoped to "remain"
in the E.U. Thursday's referendum was fairly close — the "leave"
vote won with just 51.9 percent. And so the petition for a new referendum
suggests there should be a rule that in referendums with less than 75 percent
turnout (Thursday's vote was 72.2 percent), there should be another referendum
unless a decision is reached by more than 60 percent of those voting.
Could
this plan actually work? Might Britain actually vote again and decide to stay
in the E.U.? Well, it's certainly possible. But that doesn't mean it’s not
completely daft.
Why it is
(kind of) possible
It would
be an odd move to have a referendum immediately after a previous referendum on
the same subject provided a clear outcome. But, frankly, this entire situation
is odd.
Britain
has only ever had three nationwide referendums. Generally, major policy
decisions are decided by the country's elected officials. As many have noted,
this referendum was only called in a bid by Prime Minister David Cameron to
calm tensions over the E.U. within his own Conservative Party ahead of a
general election. Cameron thought he could win. Obviously he was completely
mistaken.
Thursday's
referendum wasn't actually legally binding — Cameron could have set it up to be
so (a nationwide 2011 referendum was set up to be), but he apparently decided
better of it. This means that, in theory at least, the British government could
completely ignore the results and do whatever it thinks is best.
Of
course, doing that would anger the majority of the country who voted to leave
the E.U. But a new referendum could provide some democratic justification to
the decision.
The close
result does help the argument somewhat. Britain's 1975 referendum on membership
of the European Economic Community was decided by a 67.2 percent vote to stay
in. In the 2011 vote (on whether to use the Alternative Vote electoral system)
was decided by 67.9 percent of the vote. Nigel Farage, a key Brexit supporter,
unwittingly provided support for this argument by saying that if
"remain" won by a "52 to 48" margin, there would be
"unfinished business" and an argument for another vote.
Another
additional factor is the various reports of those who voted
"leave" but now say they are dismayed at what has happened. Many of
these accounts seem to suggest that the "leave" voter in question
thought their vote would serve as a protest vote. "I didn’t think my
vote was going to matter too much because I thought we were just going to
'remain,'" one man told the BBC on Friday,
adding that he was "quite worried" about the effect.
Why it's
completely daft
Okay.
There are a few things to unpick here, so we'll go through them step by step.
- Ignoring the clear result of
a referendum is unfair. Sure, the results of Thursday's vote were
close, but they were pretty conclusive. 51.9 percent is a better mandate
than most governments win for a general election, for example. It would
also be political suicide for Britain's government to effectively say
"your vote didn't count" to half the country. And 1.6
million may want a new referendum, but 17 million already voted in one to
leave.
- You can't retroactively
legislate like this. The proposal outlined in the petition would
require setting up laws and then retroactively applying them to Thursday's
vote. To put it simply, that's not how laws work.
- Petitions don't mean
much. Now
that the petition has over 100,000 votes it will be debated by Parliament,
but British members of Parliament have no imperative to act on it.
Petitions get lots of signatures all the time and nothing happens: Remember
the debate on whether to ban Donald Trump from Britain earlier this year?
- "Remain" might
still lose anyway. For those who supported "remain,"
the idea that "leave" voters are regretful voters who didn't
know what they were doing is heartening. However, we only have anecdotal
evidence of a few regretful pro-Brexit voters who have talked to media
outlets. Until there is a vigorously conducted poll that shows
otherwise, it’s fair to conclude that "leave" would win a second
referendum anyway.
What could possibly happen?
That said, there is a lot of uncertainty in the
air. Cameron has already said he would step down, which will trigger a
leadership contest for the Conservatives. There are signs that Jeremy
Corbyn, the leader of the opposition Labour Party, may also be forced to step
down. Some wonder whether there could be another general election before
the end of the year.
Meanwhile, Britain has not yet triggered Article 50 — the procedure
for actually leaving the E.U. — and there are signs it may try to delay doing
so as long as possible. If there is a general election, how and when to leave
the E.U. would probably become a major issue.
Even when Article 50 is invoked, negotiations may
take up to two years. Any new deal with the E.U. will have to pass
Parliament. Some in Westminster are saying that it should probably be put to
referendum again. If that happens, it may well be the last chance for
"remain" to have their voice heard.
An Oregon farmer announced upcoming "Goat Yoga" classes with a video of a yoga instructor performing poses with a baby goat on her back.
